Long before the conflict, the Ogaden had been subject to dispute. When British Somaliland became part of the newly independent nation of Somalia in , that government took control over the region. Meanwhile in Ethiopia, long-time Emperor Haile Selassie was overthrown in September of by the military council known as the Derg.
The nation was in disarray as a result, and numerous separatist movements opposed to the Derg emerged out of the political uncertainty. By Mengistu Haile Mariam had become the leader of the Derg which now controlled all of Ethiopia. By this point, they had declared Ethiopia a Marxist state and allied it with the Soviet Union. The Somali government, which had previously received considerable amounts of Soviet Aid, now provided weapons and supplies to the WSLF.
The Somalian Army was greatly outnumbered by the Ethiopian military, but they had superior artillery and air force because of earlier Soviet military aid. Soviet aid and advisors, many of whom flew directly from Mogadishu, poured into Ethiopia by air and sea. In four months, the Soviets provided over , tons of military equipment , three times the existing Ethiopian stock, and over 1, advisors, led by the deputy commander of all Soviet ground forces.
Perhaps most critically, 17, Cuban combat troops, including many veterans of the Angolan conflict, arrived to decisively tip the military balance in favor of the Ethiopians. Cuban formations quickly made their presence felt when they stonewalled a final Somali attack on Harar in January One month later, the newly internationalized Ethiopian forces, which included Cuban mechanized brigades; a South Yemeni tank battalion; and Cuban-piloted MiGs, Sukhois, and Mi-8 helicopters unleashed a massive counterattack.
Facing relentless combined arms assaults on multiple axes, the SNA lost Jijiga and fled eastward. When the Somalis committed their only strategic reserve, a mechanized brigade, to stabilize the situation, Cuban pilots decimated the formation from the air as it crossed the open desert.
With his army expelled from the Ogaden in tatters, Barre repeated his urgent calls for Western military aid. The shock of the Soviet intervention exacerbated the divisions within the U.
The Horn of Africa, lacking the established treaty relationships, norms of superpower behavior, or channels of East-West communication that characterized competition in other regions, provided the perfect context for a crisis to expose this mutual misunderstanding. The Ogaden War unleashed a chain of events with apocalyptic consequences for East Africa — many of which endure today.
With his prestige in free-fall and the hoped-for Western assistance limited, Barre attempted to levy new taxes. This sparked widespread discontentment among clans and ultimately led to a civil war that catalyzed the overthrow of Barre. The civil war left Somalia a failed state for decades. Meanwhile, the Derg , flush with confidence from victory and continued Soviet backing, pushed an ambitious program that included collectivization, the introduction of intensive farming methods, and the nationalization of forest areas.
These reforms, combined with a drought, decimated Ethiopian agricultural output and sparked a severe food shortage. Great powers, now the United States and China, once again jockey for military bases on the strategic Gulf of Aden through which approximately 15 percent of global maritime traffic travels, including over 4. Whereas American strategists once worried about Soviet access to the Gulf of Aden through Berbera, Somalia, they now focus their fears on a new Chinese facility in Djibouti, its first on the African continent.
Ethiopia, the most populous and second wealthiest state in the region, is again in the midst of dramatic internal changes, the outcome of which will shape the geopolitical dynamics of the region for decades.
The modern Horn also contains new dynamics that would have befuddled Cold War strategists. Economically, China represents the largest external trading parter for most East African countries. Chinese investment in the region, much of which occurs under the Belt and Road Initiative, is extensive , opaque, and closely linked to Chinese geopolitical ambitions.
Meanwhile, the United States is engaged in a decade-long campaign against al-Shabaab, the deadly al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group in Somalia. The nuances of these modern conditions resist the blunt application of analogies from the past.
Past experience suggests that Horn countries will attempt to exploit the Sino-American rivalry to maximize their own power and prosperity. Djibouti is a case in point. What has Djibouti gotten out of this militarization? A lot, in fact. While local officials reaped the benefits of Sino-American competition, they also increased the danger that competition will turn to confrontation.
Recent incidents in Djibouti — where U. The Ogaden War teaches analysts and policymakers that Horn countries such as Djibouti can easily overestimate their own ability to navigate great power rivalry. As a relatively new arena of strategic competition between Washington and Beijing, the Horn of Africa lacks established treaty relationships and norms of behavior that might otherwise prevent misunderstandings, constrain great power behavior, and limit miscalculations by local powers.
The tragic consequences of the Ogaden War illustrate the risks of strategic opportunism by all players in this fluid environment. ONLF rebels claimed to have attacked a government military convoy near Jijiga on August 30, , resulting in the deaths of 25 government soldiers and several rebels.
Representatives of the government and a faction of the ONLF held a first-round of Kenya-mediated negotiations in Nairobi on September , Eshete, Tibebe, Jackson, Donna R. Laitin, David D. Mayall, James. UCA dedicates itself to academic vitality, integrity, and diversity.
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